Game-specific claims are grounded in the official Kaggriculture environment reference ↗.

1. 01
   Observe commitments

   Land unlocked, structures built, crop ages, animal mix, visible workers, bank, and shared price movement.

   raw signals
2. 02
   Score candidate archetypes

   Expansion rush, livestock compound, recurring crops, short-cycle cash, or mixed/unknown.

   probability + confidence
3. 03
   Estimate their next constraint

   Cash shortage, feed demand, care load, harvest wave, storage pressure, or liquidation deadline.

   forecast
4. 04
   Select a bounded response

   Differentiate the portfolio, preserve liquidity, accelerate a sale, or stay on the baseline when evidence is weak.

   policy modifier
5. 05
   Update after evidence

   Decay stale beliefs and compare predicted farm changes with what actually appeared.

   calibration

1. STATE
   Compress the board

   Bank, assets, care deadlines, shed, routes, prices, town demand, opponent hypothesis, and turns remaining.

   sₜ
2. OPTIONS
   Generate feasible plans

   Baseline continuation plus a small set of meaningful deviations: expand, diversify, accelerate, defend, or liquidate.

   3–8 plans
3. BRANCH
   Sample uncertainty

   Opponent response, weed rolls, future shop unlocks, price movement, and execution slippage.

   many futures
4. SCORE
   Estimate finish outcomes

   Prioritize probability of finishing ahead; use expected bank and failure risk as diagnostics.

   P(bank₇₂₀ > opponent)
5. ACT
   Execute one safe step

   Take the first action from the best robust plan, observe the new state, and simulate again.

   receding horizon

1. 01
   Prevent irreversible loss

   Water/feed deadlines, overflow, invalid actions, and products about to decay or cap.

   SURVIVAL
2. 02
   Protect the terminal bank

   As turn 720 approaches, stop purchases that cannot repay and liquidate all reachable value.

   EXIT
3. 03
   Capture time-sensitive value

   Harvest windows, temporary scarcity, shop-driven demand, and care bonuses.

   OPPORTUNITY
4. 04
   Read the opponent

   Update the archetype only when visible evidence materially changes the likely response.

   INFERENCE
5. 05
   Run lookahead

   Compare the baseline with bounded counter-strategies and choose the robust branch.

   SIMULATE
6. 06
   Compound the farm

   Plant, build, hire, expand, and route workers using the remaining action budget.

   GROWTH

1. 01
   Freeze v0.2

   Keep the three attention modules readable, bounded, and protected by a safe fallback action.

   one known policy
2. 02
   Pass local gates

   Complete self-play, starter matches, both seats, varied seeds, and the late-game liquidation test.

   zero runtime failures
3. 03
   Enter the ladder

   Kaggle first validates the bot against a copy of itself, then matches it with similarly rated submissions.

   public evidence
4. 04
   Wait for signal

   Record rating, rank, and episode count at consistent checkpoints instead of reacting to every move.

   50 · 100 · 250 episodes
5. 05
   Classify losses

   Tag opponent archetype, first strategic divergence, execution failure, and terminal inventory.

   failure taxonomy
6. 06
   Change one mechanism

   Improve opponent modeling, lookahead, attention, or a strategy rule—then submit a new version.

   causal iteration

def agent(obs):
    return {
        "farmer": ["PASS"],
        "hands": [],
        "market": []
    }

Frozen local opponent: artifacts/kaggriculture-v0.2.0.tar.gz. Build with npm run submission:build; validate the exact archive with npm run submission:validate.

Submission and ranking behavior: official Kaggriculture evaluation section ↗.

Prices move with supply and town demand.